Miami Dolphins' Playoff Hopes: Can a 2-6 Start Be Reversed?
Despite a rocky 2-6 start to the season, the Miami Dolphins may still have a shot at the playoffs. Their Week 10 win over the Los Angeles Rams, a 23-15 victory at SoFi Stadium in which Miami never trailed might be the spark they need. This win not only ended a three-game losing streak but also brought the Dolphins within one and a half games of the Denver Broncos, who currently hold the AFC's seventh seed. Though the odds are challenging, there are reasons to believe Miami could fight their way back into playoff contention.
Climbing back from a 2-6 start is historically rare in the NFL. Only three teams have ever rebounded from such a low point to secure a playoff spot. BetMGM currently has Miami at -450 odds to miss the postseason, with +350 odds to make it, placing them as the AFC’s eighth seed, just outside the third and final Wild Card slot. Additionally, the Dolphins sit three spots behind the Buffalo Bills and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, who are in firm control of the AFC and top playoff seeds.
The Dolphins have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, which could prove to be a game-changer. Miami has already faced division leader Buffalo twice, and now the remaining teams on their schedule have generally weaker records. Over the next few weeks, they will face the 3-7 New York Jets twice, the 3-7 New England Patriots once, as well as the struggling 2-7 Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders. If Miami can capitalize on these matchups, they could find themselves with a chance at a winning record. Additionally, the toughest remaining games on their schedule, the 6-3 Green Bay Packers, 6-4 Houston Texans, and 5-4 San Francisco 49ers are scattered throughout the final stretch. Winning two out of three of these tougher contests, along with victories against bottom-ranked teams, would put Miami at 9-8, keeping them in the conversation for a Wild Card spot.
Much of the Dolphins' early-season struggles can be traced back to injuries, particularly at quarterback. With Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, backups Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and Tyler Huntley took turns under center, but the offense faltered. Star wide receiver Tyreek Hill and running back De’Von Achane couldn’t find their usual rhythm, and the Dolphins’ offense was among the league’s least effective units. Tagovailoa’s return has breathed new life into the team. Though his comeback initially yielded two narrow losses on last-second field goals, the Dolphins finally broke through against the Rams in Week 10. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, he provides the stability Miami needs to make the offense more consistent. Defensive injuries, including to pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, also disrupted the team’s early momentum, but if Miami’s defensive playmakers can stay healthy, the unit could improve further.
The Dolphins aren’t the only team eyeing a Wild Card spot with a favorable remaining schedule. The Indianapolis Colts, currently 4-6, have the second-easiest path ahead, while the Jets who are just a half-game behind Miami have the sixth-easiest schedule. With two games against Miami, the Jets present both an opportunity and a threat to the Dolphins’ playoff hopes. This crowded playoff picture means that every remaining game will be crucial. Winning head-to-head games, especially against AFC rivals, will be key for Miami to stay ahead in the race.
To make a legitimate playoff push, the Dolphins will need to take full advantage of their easier games and pull out at least a couple of wins against tougher opponents. If they can end the season at 9-8, they’ll at least be in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot. Their Week 10 victory over the Rams provides a glimmer of hope, and the next two weeks with home games against the Raiders and Patriots could set Miami up for a real shot.
It’s a tough road ahead, and the odds are stacked against them, but the Dolphins have shown they’re capable of bouncing back. If they can keep their momentum going, a playoff berth, though unlikely, is still within reach.
