Texas vs. Arizona State: A Peach Bowl Preview
Texas is set to face off against Arizona State this Wednesday in a matchup that pins two very different but equally compelling storylines against one another. This Texas team is exactly what college football experts thought they would be entering this season. Between offseason acquisitions like Isaiah Bond from Alabama and Andrew Mukuba from Clemson, and continued development from returning players like quarterback Quinn Ewers, there was consensus among the college football world that Texas would be a contender for a national championship. As we enter the second round of the College Football Playoffs, those sentiments ring as loudly as they ever have. Arizona State, meanwhile, wasn’t supposed to be here. ASU was considered in rebuild mode entering this year, having a combined record of just 4-23 in their last three seasons. Their preseason odds to win the Big 12 were 100 to one and third to longest odds in the conference. It became clear as the season unfolded, however, that nobody told the Arizona State football team those odds. They went on to win 11 conference games including one over Iowa State for the Big 12 Championship.
Keys to Victory for Texas
Texas has the advantage over Arizona State in almost every aspect of the game. The Longhorns’ roster has more talent everywhere and especially on the line of scrimmage. To make things worse for ASU, Texas can also wreak havoc in their aerial attack as Isaiah Bond seems to be open every play. I don’t think there’s many ways head coach Steve Sarkisian can go wrong in terms of play calling, but I’d like to see his team maintain a quick tempo in order to create explosive plays. Playing fast and getting the ball to the skill players in space is what Texas does best in my opinion. At just over six yards per play, they rank third in the SEC and 25th in all of FBS despite the Longhorns’ gauntlet of a schedule. The big plays not only feed into Texas’ strength, but they create more possessions in a game than there otherwise would be. These additional drives for each team will only exacerbate Texas’ advantage and position themselves to run the scoreboard instead of allowing the game to come down to a single possession.
Throughout the season Texas has had arguably the best defense in all of college football. They rank second in the FBS in both yards per play allowed and points per game behind Ohio State in each. However, where they especially excel among college football playoff teams is in creating turnovers. Texas creates 2.1 takeaways per game which is the best among remaining playoff teams. This ball-hogging tenacity can mostly be attributed to their secondary, where players like Jahdae Barron have terrified opposing quarterbacks from making aggressive throws. If Texas takes a strong enough lead to force Arizona State to abandon the run game, it will be a very long day for Sun Devil fans.
Keys to Victory for Arizona State
It’s an uphill battle for the Sun Devils in this one, but as we saw against Georgia twice this season Texas is beatable. For me, it starts with stopping the run game. Texas combined for just 60 yards in those two games against Georgia, which remain as Texas’ only losses this year. Sophomore running back Quintrevion Wisner was mostly off the radar for even the most ardent college football fans early this year, but he has quietly delivered punishment to opposing defenses over the course of this season. He’s run for over 100 yards in three of the last four games for Texas, with the exception being Georgia. If Arizona State’s best front seven defenders like Caleb McCullough and Shamari Simmons can replicate Georgia’s rush defense success, Texas will have a much smaller playbook on Wednesday.
I also think it’s paramount for Arizona State to get off to a hot start. In some of their bigger wins this season including the Big 12 Championship over Iowa State, ASU was able to put up big numbers early. They scored 24 and 21 in the first half alone against Iowa State and BYU respectively. I don’t think they need to lean on getting the ball down the field in explosive plays like I think Texas will prioritize, but look for the Sun Devil play calling to stay aggressive in third and long and fourth, and short situations early in this game.
Prediction
The spread sits at Texas -12.5 as of late Sunday night. Arizona State is getting slightly more money on the spread than Texas but the ledger remains mostly light as bettors wait until they’re closer to gameday to place bets. Arizona State has been the better spread team this year as they’ve surprised the college football world with this playoff berth, but there’s no doubt this is the toughest competition they will have faced all season. I would be cautious of bettors believing Texas spread is a no-brainer, however. As double-digit favorites, Texas is just 5-4 this season with the most notable result being their razor-thin win over Vanderbilt as 16.5-point favorites. I think the name of the game will be points for both teams, anyway they can get them, and I expect each team to take their fair share of shots down the field. In a high-scoring affair, I’m taking Texas 34-24 as Arizona State makes a late comeback attempt that falls short.
