The Nolan Arenado Trade, Three Years Later: A Rockies Disaster and a Cardinals Dilemma
It has been three years since the Colorado Rockies sent one of their best players, Nolan Arenado, to the St. Louis Cardinals in what is widely viewed as one of the worst trades in MLB history. At the time, many Rockies fans saw it as a clear sign that ownership had no real desire to build a true contender. Not only did the Rockies give up one of the best third basemen in MLB for an underwhelming return, but they also agreed to pay St. Louis $51 million to take him. This decision baffled fans and analysts alike, as Arenado was in his prime and had consistently been one of the top players in the league.
Since the trade, the Rockies have struggled to remain relevant, while Arenado has continued to excel. The move not only weakened Colorado’s roster but also left them without a clear direction moving forward. Three years later, it’s time to reevaluate the trade and its long-term impact on both teams. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have reaped the benefits of Arenado’s elite defense and consistent offensive production, solidifying their infield for years to come. As the Rockies search for a new identity, the trade serves as a cautionary tale of mismanagement and unmet expectations.
A One-Sided Disaster
On February 1st, 2021, the Rockies and Cardinals finalized a deal that sent Nolan Arenado to St. Louis along with $51 million in exchange for: Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Tony Locey, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers. At the time, the return was heavily criticized, and for good reason. The Rockies failed to acquire a single top prospect from St. Louis, instead settling for a package deal with Gomber and Montero as the headliners. Gomber, at best, profiled as a back-end starter, while Montero was a bat-first infielder with questionable upside. The rest of the return consisted of lower-level prospects who had limited potential.
Meanwhile, Arenado, as expected, made an immediate impact in St. Louis. He helped lead the Cardinals to three straight winning seasons and finished third in NL MVP voting in 2022, proving that he was still one of the best players in baseball. For the Rockies, however, this trade signaled the beginning of a full decline. Colorado went from a competitive team with multiple stars like Arenado and Charlie Blackmon to a franchise that seemed directionless. The Arenado trade not only weakened their roster but also exposed serious flaws in the organization’s ability to evaluate talent and build for the future.
How the Rockies’ Return Has Panned Out
Three years later, the Rockies have yet to gain any meaningful value from the Arenado trade. The deal was meant to provide both immediate and future help, but it ultimately failed on both fronts. Colorado not only lost a generational talent but also took on a financial burden without securing any cornerstone players in return. As a result, the trade remains one of the most lopsided moves in recent MLB history, leaving the Rockies stuck in a cycle of mediocrity.
Austin Gomber: While Gomber has been a serviceable innings eater, his career ERA with the Rockies remains above five. He has shown flashes of promise, but he in no way comes close to replacing Arenado’s impact. His inconsistency on the mound has made him more of a back-end rotation arm rather than a reliable starter. Though he has provided some value, his struggles highlight how lopsided the trade has been.
Elehuris Montero: Montero still has some potential, but his struggles at the plate and subpar defense make him far from a sure thing. Entering his age-25 season, this could be his final chance to prove himself as a legitimate MLB contributor. The Rockies have given him opportunities, but he has yet to take full advantage of them. If he fails to improve, he risks being labeled as another failed prospect from the Arenado trade.
Tony Locey: Locey has been one of the most disappointing pieces from the trade. On March 28th, 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays acquired him in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, meaning he never made an impact for the Rockies. His inability to progress through the minor league system made him an afterthought in the deal. The Rockies essentially gave up on him without ever seeing any return on their investment.
Mateo Gil: Another player who provided no value to Colorado, Gil was eventually traded away and is now a free agent. He was essentially a wasted asset in the deal. Once viewed as a potential depth piece, he never developed into a legitimate MLB prospect. His departure further cemented the trade as a disastrous move for the Rockies.
Jake Sommers: Sommers has also failed to contribute at the MLB level. In 2023, he spent just one week in Triple-A before being demoted to Double-A due to a seven ERA in just three innings pitched. His struggles in the minors have kept him from being a factor in the Rockies’ pitching depth. Unless he shows significant improvement, it’s unlikely he ever makes an impact at the big-league level.
In short, the Rockies have nothing to show for the Arenado trade while also losing $51 million in the process. Not only did they part ways with one of the greatest players in franchise history, but they also failed to acquire any players who significantly helped their rebuild. The players they received in return have either struggled to make an impact or are no longer with the organization. Meanwhile, Arenado has continued to be a productive player, further highlighting how one-sided the deal was. The Rockies’ inability to maximize the value of a superstar trade remains one of the biggest blunders in recent MLB history.
Could Arenado Be Traded Again?
It’s clear that St. Louis won the Arenado trade, as they not only acquired a franchise cornerstone but also benefited from Colorado’s financial missteps. Since joining the Cardinals, Arenado has remained a force both offensively and defensively, playing a key role in their continued contention. His 2022 season was particularly impressive, as he hit .293 with 30 home runs and an .891 OPS while finishing third in MVP voting. Beyond his statistics, Arenado also brought much-needed veteran leadership, helping to solidify the Cardinals’ clubhouse. His presence gave St. Louis stability at third base, allowing them to compete in the NL Central without worrying about the hot corner.
However, in 2023, Arenado’s performance took a noticeable dip, raising questions about his long-term production. His defense, once elite, showed signs of regression, and his offensive numbers declined, with his OPS falling below .800 for the first time since his rookie season. While still a solid player, these struggles led to speculation about his future in St. Louis. If the Cardinals decide to retool their roster, moving Arenado could be a way to free up payroll and bring in younger talent. Despite his downturn in production, Arenado’s track record suggests he still holds significant trade value, and teams in need of an experienced third baseman may inquire about his availability.
Several potential suitors could emerge if the Cardinals explore trading Arenado, with each team offering a unique scenario. The Boston Red Sox could be an option, though they currently have Rafael Devers at third base, which complicates the fit. However, Arenado would provide a major defensive upgrade, and if Boston is willing to shift Devers to designated hitter or first base, a deal could make sense. The biggest roadblock is Arenado’s contract, as he is still owed $74 million over the next three seasons, and the Red Sox would likely need financial assistance to absorb that cost. Given Boston’s recent hesitance to spend on big contracts, they may not be the most aggressive pursuer.
The Chicago Cubs are another team that could enter the mix, especially as they look for a star player to anchor their lineup. With a promising young roster, the Cubs are pushing to compete again and could view Arenado as a perfect veteran presence to guide their team. His leadership, experience, and still-capable bat would provide a major boost as Chicago aims to solidify itself as a contender. The biggest question is whether the Cubs would be willing to take on his contract, as they have been cautious with large financial commitments in recent years. If they believe Arenado can help elevate them to a division title, however, they could explore a deal.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers remain one of the most aggressive teams in baseball and have already made major moves this offseason. After spending heavily to build a championship-caliber roster, adding Arenado would only strengthen their World Series chances. With their ability to take on big contracts, his salary would likely not be a major concern for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have long admired Arenado, and if they see an opportunity to acquire him without giving up their top prospects, they may pounce. Given his Southern California roots, Arenado might also be open to waiving his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers.
The New York Yankees are another potential landing spot, as they continue making moves in response to last year’s World Series loss to the Dodgers. With uncertainty at third base, Arenado would be an ideal addition, providing both a defensive upgrade and a much-needed right-handed power bat. His ability to perform in high-pressure situations could make him a perfect fit in the Bronx, where the Yankees expect to contend every season. However, the Yankees have already committed significant money to other stars, which could make adding another large contract difficult. If they are serious about another championship run, though, they may view Arenado as the missing piece to push them over the top.
Final Conclusion
Instead of building a winning team around Arenado, the Rockies mismanaged their roster and ultimately alienated one of their best players. Rather than extending their franchise cornerstone and committing to contention, they shipped him away in one of the worst trades in recent history. Now, three years later, the Rockies are still searching for a new identity, while Arenado continues to be a valuable player elsewhere. The failure to maximize his value has left Colorado without a clear direction, and their fanbase is still feeling the effects of the franchise’s poor decision-making.
If Arenado is traded again, it will serve as yet another painful reminder of how the Rockies mishandled one of the greatest players in their history. While St. Louis may also decide to move on from him, at least they have gotten productive seasons out of him—something Colorado cannot say about the return they received. The Arenado trade not only set the Rockies back for years but also left their fans wondering what could have been had the organization committed to winning with him. In hindsight, the deal represents one of the worst asset management failures in baseball history. No matter what happens next, this trade will remain a dark spot in the Rockies’ legacy for years to come.
